Meta's Muse agent wiped roughly $54B off the travel aggregators in two weeks. The market is pricing a supply shock but what actually happened is a distribution shock.
I’d happily let an agent compare rooms and prices. If the hotel cancels on arrival day, I’d still want someone who can find another room and sort out the refund.
OTA rewards and discount programs aren't always matched by operators on their direct channel. They also provide a trust and recourse layer for travelers. Even with less direct booking friction consumers still want to get the best deal. If operators want to win direct bookings they need to make it so that travelers ALWAYS gets the best value booking direct.
Hello Thomas, commented on your LinkedIn post already. Very insightful analysis. One missing factor for hotels going through the C option routes might be visibility. OTAs offer very clear visibility and discoverability interfaces. Not sure how that can play out inside of Muse.
The distribution vs supply shock distinction is the right lens. The user reports so far point to the "consumer inertia" part more than bookings: one person had Muse file for a 7-hour delay and got $250 in Delta credit in 5 minutes, another had it watch a United fare and claim $1,000 in credit on a price drop. Those are post-booking chores OTAs never did, and it is where the agent seems to win first. 22 travel examples with sources: https://shipwithmuse.live/search?q=flight
Great piece. There is something to be said for % of revenue spent on user acquisition… Purchasing flow is changing for both Airbnb and Booking. Booking already spends a ton on user acquisition and will likely just redirect those dollars elsewhere (i.e. Muse). Airbnb, on the other hand, is going to have their margins crushed.
I’d happily let an agent compare rooms and prices. If the hotel cancels on arrival day, I’d still want someone who can find another room and sort out the refund.
OTA rewards and discount programs aren't always matched by operators on their direct channel. They also provide a trust and recourse layer for travelers. Even with less direct booking friction consumers still want to get the best deal. If operators want to win direct bookings they need to make it so that travelers ALWAYS gets the best value booking direct.
What a fucking disgraced nonsense I'm reading it here
Hello Thomas, commented on your LinkedIn post already. Very insightful analysis. One missing factor for hotels going through the C option routes might be visibility. OTAs offer very clear visibility and discoverability interfaces. Not sure how that can play out inside of Muse.
The distribution vs supply shock distinction is the right lens. The user reports so far point to the "consumer inertia" part more than bookings: one person had Muse file for a 7-hour delay and got $250 in Delta credit in 5 minutes, another had it watch a United fare and claim $1,000 in credit on a price drop. Those are post-booking chores OTAs never did, and it is where the agent seems to win first. 22 travel examples with sources: https://shipwithmuse.live/search?q=flight
Great piece. There is something to be said for % of revenue spent on user acquisition… Purchasing flow is changing for both Airbnb and Booking. Booking already spends a ton on user acquisition and will likely just redirect those dollars elsewhere (i.e. Muse). Airbnb, on the other hand, is going to have their margins crushed.