Great write-up as always Thomas. Yipit data only looks at rides in Waymo's ODD, but I calculated Waymo's market share to be 20.5% in SF, which is still quite impressive. But in LA, I calculated Waymo's market share at just 2.5%.
Part of that is because LA is not as mature of a market, it's a more spread out density-wise, but the third and maybe biggest reason is what you alluded to in that SF is a "tech heavy, disruption-friendly market". It's important not to extrapolate early success to what I call the 'average rideshare customer' since I don't think they'll be happy to wait longer for a Waymo and pay more like the early adopters. I think the survey you shared with 70% of people not wanting to take an AV ride will be a big hurdle but also one of the reasons why the Uber - Waymo partnership is so powerful. Uber can present an AV in the best situation/scenario possible and ensure a great first time experience.
Will feature this article in our newsletter tomorrow - good stuff!
We certainly shouldn't assume that there is a winner takes all scenario here. There is no reason why this market shouldn't be occupied by multiple players - it may even become a commoditized service like the airline industry. There are parallels. No brand loyalty is necessary, no network effects.
Using aviation as an analogue, the companies that have fared the best are those that kept lean and affordable - Southwest Airlines. In contrast, the biggest or those with the latest tech or best level of customer service often went out of business.
The other thing worth considering is that this is new technology. Safety is key, closely followed by execution. If any of these companies experience a major road traffic accident - that could be fatal for the business as well as the passengers. In terms of execution, wait times and cost will be key.
You may find that Amazon's ZOOX - which appears to be small relative to Waymo - emerges as the champion because of the Amazon customer centric execution culture.
If a waymo-uber partnership is the future model, what do you think waymo share could get to as a percentage of Uber rides? And what are the implications for Uber’s ebitda as a % of GBs?
Great analysis, thanks for sharing!
Absolutely agree on the section on consumer willingness to share private vehicles as robotaxis.
the gap between theory and consumer reality is massive here.
Most people like the idea of monetizing their idle vehicle… until they imagine the wear, hygiene issues etc.
Cars are still emotional and personal assets for many — not just financial ones.
Excellent. I appreciate your perspective.
Consumer willingness question is weak . Motive is Money - paying the monthly cost of the car with 48 hours in the fleet is a strong question
Great write-up as always Thomas. Yipit data only looks at rides in Waymo's ODD, but I calculated Waymo's market share to be 20.5% in SF, which is still quite impressive. But in LA, I calculated Waymo's market share at just 2.5%.
Details here: https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/i/163651491/all-markets-our-market-share-analysis
Part of that is because LA is not as mature of a market, it's a more spread out density-wise, but the third and maybe biggest reason is what you alluded to in that SF is a "tech heavy, disruption-friendly market". It's important not to extrapolate early success to what I call the 'average rideshare customer' since I don't think they'll be happy to wait longer for a Waymo and pay more like the early adopters. I think the survey you shared with 70% of people not wanting to take an AV ride will be a big hurdle but also one of the reasons why the Uber - Waymo partnership is so powerful. Uber can present an AV in the best situation/scenario possible and ensure a great first time experience.
Will feature this article in our newsletter tomorrow - good stuff!
This is super interesting.
We certainly shouldn't assume that there is a winner takes all scenario here. There is no reason why this market shouldn't be occupied by multiple players - it may even become a commoditized service like the airline industry. There are parallels. No brand loyalty is necessary, no network effects.
Using aviation as an analogue, the companies that have fared the best are those that kept lean and affordable - Southwest Airlines. In contrast, the biggest or those with the latest tech or best level of customer service often went out of business.
The other thing worth considering is that this is new technology. Safety is key, closely followed by execution. If any of these companies experience a major road traffic accident - that could be fatal for the business as well as the passengers. In terms of execution, wait times and cost will be key.
You may find that Amazon's ZOOX - which appears to be small relative to Waymo - emerges as the champion because of the Amazon customer centric execution culture.
Thoughts?
If a waymo-uber partnership is the future model, what do you think waymo share could get to as a percentage of Uber rides? And what are the implications for Uber’s ebitda as a % of GBs?