United Airlines (UAL) - Q4 2025 Earnings Call
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Call Details
Call Title: United Airlines Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call
Date Held: January 26, 2026
Management Team Members Present:
Scott Kirby - Chief Executive Officer
Brett Hart - President
Toby Enquist - Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Andrew Nocella - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Mike Leskinen - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Call Summary
Financial Performance
United Airlines ended Q4 2025 with an EPS of $3.10, within guidance, and marked a slight increase from the previous year. “2025 was a challenging year for the airline industry,” said CFO Mike Leskinen, explaining how macroeconomic factors persisted throughout the year.
The company achieved total revenues of $15.4 billion for the quarter, driven by a 6.5% increase in capacity year-over-year. This reflects the airline’s capability to navigate through challenging macro conditions and still grow.
United’s full-year EPS reached $10.62, indicating a growth trajectory even amidst major operational challenges, setting the airline apart as potentially the only U.S. airline to have achieved this.
The operational efficiencies led to a CASMAX increase of only 0.4% for both the fourth quarter and full year, illustrating the effectiveness of cost control measures implemented during the year.
The company generated $2.7 billion in free cash flow for 2025, with expectations to maintain this level in 2026. “Free cash flow generation remains a key priority,” stated Leskinen, reinforcing their financial discipline.
Overall, United Airlines ranked number two among major carriers for on-time departures and cancellations in 2025, showcasing their operational resilience despite external pressures.
The airline’s proactive engagement in labor negotiations is anticipated to enhance productivity and operational performance, as indicated by Brett Hart, who noted ongoing discussions with four labor unions.
Guidance
For Q1 2026, United anticipates an EPS between $1 and $1.50, implying a 37% earnings improvement year-over-year at the midpoint, reflecting continuous strong demand.
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance is set between $12 and $14, representing over 20% growth and targeted margin expansion towards double-digit margins as the company leverages improved operational parameters.
The guidance appears conservative relative to strong current booking trends, especially in business travel. CFO Leskinen confirmed, “There’s upside,” reinforcing that if current trends persist, EPS could exceed initial guidance.
The company expects operational improvements in all regional markets. Andrew Nocella highlighted, “We’re looking for sequential improvement everywhere,” particularly emphasizing the promising trajectory in the Atlantic region.
Capital Allocation
United plans to take delivery of over 100 narrowbody and approximately 20 widebody aircraft in 2026, aligning with its strategic expansion focused on fleet modernization.
Capital expenditures for the year are projected to be less than $8 billion, maintaining the consistent guidance of $7 to $9 billion provided in prior multi-year forecasts.
The airline continues to focus on deleveraging, having repaid $1.9 billion of high-cost debt in 2025, aiming for net leverage below two times to achieve investment-grade ratings.
The management remains committed to opportunistic share buybacks while balancing priorities for becoming investment-grade rated, with $782 million authorization remaining.
Macro & Demand Trends
The macro environment in 2025 exerted pressure on the airlines; however, United managed to prioritize customer experience and brand loyalty effectively, which, according to Brett Hart, resulted in an almost three-point increase in overall Net Promoter Scores (NPS).
The competitive landscape is shifting, with Hart mentioning, “The government shutdown and real-time flight reductions” contributing to operational adjustments, ultimately leading to a thriving customer satisfaction outcome.
Domestic capacity among competitors is being assessed as potentially unprofitable, which is leading to strategic capacity adjustments. Nocella indicated, “We did see a nice bounce back in our international flying,” after early season struggles.
Competition
Scott Kirby noted that market share in Chicago has significantly shifted, with United gaining a 22-point lead with Chicago-based customers despite increased competitive activity from American Airlines.
The competitive response is expected as other hub-and-spoke carriers may struggle against the backdrop of United’s brand loyalty strategy, which has proven resilient even in challenges.
The airline’s strategic decisions around capacity management are being closely monitored, with Kirby asserting that they will not concede gate space in Chicago, stating, “We are not going to allow them to win a single gate at our expense in 2026.”
Product Updates
United’s focus on enhancing travel experiences has been marked by the introduction of new features in their United app, such as enhanced mobile bag tracking and real-time boarding updates.
Enhanced loyalty revenues increased 9%, demonstrating the company’s successful efforts in refining its MileagePlus program, as confirmed by the management team during the call.
The delivery of new aircraft will include the “largest redesign of united.com in a decade,” aimed at improving customer interaction and product merchandising.
NOTABLE QUOTES
“The strategy we’ve had to build a revenue diverse, brand loyal airline...is remarkably resilient in tough times.” - Scott Kirby
“I’m really proud of our team managing through irregular operations.” - Toby Inquist
“We closed out 2025 on a high note and delivered fourth quarter earnings per share of $3.10.” - Mike Leskinen
“Customers are taking notes...the United product offering continues to attract more and more brand-loyal customers.” - Mike Leskinen
“Economic gravity always wins in the end.” - Scott Kirby
“Our focus is on building brand loyalty, and our numbers reflect that strategy.” - Brett Hart
“We are optimistic that we’re on the course for that at some point in the future.” - Andrew Nocella
“Our execution plan has been working for the last decade.” - Scott Kirby
“The operational efficiencies we’re focused on will define our success.” - Mike Leskinen
“We will be the only airline to use the aircraft in a way that really does bring on a bunch of new markets.” - Andrew Nocella
Q&A SUMMARY
Q: Connor Cunningham (Milius Research), [asked about corporate travel strength trends during Q1 and how they may affect revenue guidance]
A: Andrew Nocella emphasized that corporate travel is off to a strong start with business revenue reflecting high single digits and nearing 20% compared to the previous year, indicating promising performance into the end of Q1.
Q: David Vernon (Bernstein), [inquired about the impact of credit card ecosystem changes on United’s MileagePlus strategy]
A: Andrew Nocella responded that United remains in constant communication with Chase, asserting that while there may be effects on their portfolio, it would likely be less significant compared to industry norms.
Q: Sheila Caglioglu (Jefferies), [asked about the sustainability of unit cost improvements]
A: Mike Leskinen noted that 2025’s operational efficiency will serve as a solid benchmark for the upcoming year, and further cultural shifts to drive efficiencies are already in progress.
Q: Katie O’Brien (Goldman Sachs), [sought details on sequential trends by region for Q1 guidance]
A: Andrew Nocella highlighted that domestic markets during Q4 faced the larger hit from the government shutdown, but expectations for improvements in all regions are set, particularly with premium cabins leading.
Q: Ravi Shankar (Morgan Stanley), [explored the conservativeness of 2026 volumetric guidance amid industry uncertainty]
A: Mike Leskinen clarified that the more conservative guidance reflects prudence based on past industry challenges, ensuring financial commitments are met through rigorous planning.
Q: Tom Fitzgerald (TD Cowan), [asked about capacity management in response to competitive pressures in Chicago]
A: Scott Kirby confirmed that they will ensure they maintain existing gate counts and add flights as necessary to counter competitive growth from American Airlines.
Q: Chris Weatherby (Wells Fargo), [inquired about unit costs and potential deviations in 2026]
A: Leskinen reiterated that they are focused on maintaining decreased costs while exploring new efficiencies to optimize capital use moving forward.
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