Uber (UBER) - 2025 UBS TMT Conference
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Uber Technologies, Inc. – UBS TMT Conference (Dec 3, 2025)
Speaker: Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, Chief Financial Officer
Analyst: Stephen Ju, UBS Investment Bank
Management Present
Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah — Chief Financial Officer
(Only Prashanth is listed in the transcript as an Uber executive participant.)
SUMMARY CATEGORIES
1. Financial Performance
(Required Section)
CFO reiterates Uber’s 3-year CAGR framework, expecting “mid- to high teens” gross bookings growth and EBITDA growth of “high 30s to 40%.”
Q3 gross bookings grew 21%, reaching a $50B run rate, which the CFO describes as “the business really is humming along.”
Growth is “very broad-based… across multiple products, across multiple geographies.”
Monthly trip growth in Q3 was 22%, split between 17% user growth and 4% frequency increase.
U.S. bookings continue growing double digits, with penetration still only ~15% of adults, suggesting “an open-ended growth story.”
2. Guidance & Future Growth Outlook
(Required Section)
CFO reiterates long-term confidence: “There is years of growth in front of us.”
Penetration in top 10 countries averages 15%, with large gaps in 60+ smaller markets providing runway.
Only 20% of users globally use both Rides + Eats — a major cross-sell opportunity.
Uber will continue reinvesting in longer-duration growth initiatives, suggesting margin expansion will moderate but profits still grow faster than revenue.
CFO: “Profitability [will] grow faster than our top line for years to come… but you probably won’t see the same level of margin expansion.”
3. Mobility Trends & Insurance Cost Improvements
Insurance had been a major headwind but is now easing due to tech, policy, and commercial initiatives.
Uber launched Driving Insight, a driver safety scoring tool showing “behavior nudges are working.”
Policy wins in CA, GA, NV reduce fraud exposure:
“We used to have to carry $1M… the car next to us had $300k… that delta built a cottage industry [of claims].”U.S. insurance inflation dropped from low 20% two years ago to mid-single digits now.
This creates hundreds of millions of dollars of pricing capacity Uber will reinvest in U.S. mobility in 2026 to drive demand elasticity.
4. Delivery, Grocery, & Retail Trends
Delivery business has posted 7–8 consecutive quarters of accelerating QoQ growth.
Merchant count +12% YoY; courier/driver supply +21% YoY — improving liquidity and experience.
Merchant-funded offers are up 50% YoY, supporting affordability in a pressured macro environment.
User growth strong across income cohorts (<70k, 70–90k, >90k).
Grocery/retail is now a $12B run-rate business, growing faster than delivery overall.
Uber well-positioned for “top-up” grocery use cases — “the choice you go to when you’re missing 1 or 2 ingredients.”
5. Competitive Landscape & TAM Expansion
On Amazon entering grocery delivery: CFO emphasizes TAM scale — “This is a massive TAM, massive… still early innings.”
Uber is #1 in 7 or 8 of the top 10 global markets for grocery delivery.
Behavioral shift away from U.S. “big weekly shop” expected to favor Uber’s top-up positioning.
TAM for Uber’s platform opportunity expected to expand 6× ($2B → $12B), per conference deck referenced.
6. Capital Allocation & Investment Priorities
(Required Section)
Uber sees an “abundance of investment opportunities” and will continue funding them while expanding profits.
Examples:
Geographic expansion: Mobility in 70+ countries vs Delivery in only ~30.
New demographic use cases: seniors (similar success pattern to teens).
Continued investment in grocery, retail, search, and merchant selection.
Major push into true cross-platform optimization:
“If you’re on your morning ride… offer you a Starbucks.”
“If you’ve ordered from a restaurant… encourage you to take an Uber to dine-in.”
Cross-platform users have 3× higher spend and higher retention.
7. Autonomous Vehicles (AV / Robotaxis)
CFO states “very, very high conviction that the platform is the right way for this market.”
AV manufacturers’ success depends on keeping vehicles full; Uber has unmatched demand.
Consumers need hybrid networks to avoid wait-time problems; Uber can route to AV or human driver.
AV tech is “solved”; next phase is scaling commercially.
Uber expects 10+ cities with AV on Uber by end of 2026.
New launches: Dallas (new partner), Abu Dhabi (driver out of car).
Waymo partnership results: AVs in Phoenix/Austin/Atlanta have utilization “busier than 99.9% of Uber drivers.”
10 INTERESTING / NOTABLE DIRECT QUOTES
“The business really is humming along.”
“It really is a reflection of just how diversified and strong we are experiencing right now.”
“There is years of growth in front of us.”
“You shouldn’t be over earning, right?” — “Correct.”
“Our users grew 17% and frequency grew 4%.”
“Behavior nudges are working.”
“Those California savings… are recurring savings.”
“Delivery growth has been accelerating sequentially for seven or eight quarters.”
“Merchant-funded offers are up over 50% year-on-year.”
“Waymo vehicles are busier than 99.9% of Uber drivers.”
Q&A SUMMARY
Q: Stephen Ju (UBS) – What drove upside in mobility & delivery vs 2024 expectations?
A: Growth is broad-based across products and geographies; strong supply (drivers +21%, merchants +12%), quality investments, expansion into suburban markets growing 1.5–3× faster than cities.
Q: Are these secular/durable growth drivers for future high-teens growth?
A: Yes. Penetration remains low globally (15%), cross-usage of Rides + Eats only 20%. Large runway in both user adoption and frequency.
Q: U.S. TAM penetration & which lever matters most?
A: U.S. matches global 15% penetration → huge room left. Growth driven by user growth + frequency; both remain strong.
Q: Impact of easing insurance inflation on mobility bookings?
A: Major savings from tech (Driving Insight), policy reforms (CA, GA, NV), and moderating industry insurance inflation. Hundreds of millions will be reinvested in 2026 to stimulate demand.
Q: Delivery growth drivers?
A: Long streak of sequential acceleration; improvements in tech, selection, defect reduction, affordability (50% growth in merchant-funded offers), and strong cross-income demand.
Q: How to view Amazon’s entry into grocery delivery?
A: Massive TAM; Uber is strong in top-up use cases; grocery/retail already $12B run rate; Uber #1 in most global top markets.
Q: Where will Uber reinvest over next 12 months?
A: Geography expansion, seniors product, grocery/retail, search, merchant selection, and major cross-platform optimization (Mobility ↔ Delivery integration).
Q: Robotaxi strategy & ownership?
A: Platform model is optimal; Uber solves utilization and consumer wait-time issues; 10+ AV cities expected by 2026; commercialization phase underway.
Q: What has Waymo partnership yielded?
A: Extremely high utilization—“busier than 99.9% of Uber drivers.” Confirms platform approach builds demand density AVs require.
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